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There’s war in Afghanistan, a crisis in the Gaza Strip and percolating conflicts across sub-Saharan Africa. But for politicial scientists, that’s actually the good news.

The fact is, global conflicts have been on a downward trend for the last half-century. And now, a group of researchers in Norway says their data indicates that the future could be even more peaceful.

In a paper soon to be published in International Studies Quarterly, Håvard Hegre, a professor of political science at the University of Oslo, claims that the number of ongoing conflicts will be halved by 2050 — with the greatest decrease coming in the Middle East.