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With greenhouse warming, rainfall in the South Pacific islands will depend on two competing effects -- an increase due to overall warming and a decrease due to changes in atmospheric water transport -- according to a study by an international team of scientists around Matthew Widlansky and Axel Timmermann at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa. In the South Pacific, the study shows, these two effects sometimes cancel each other out, resulting in highly uncertain rainfall projections.

Results of the study are published in the 28 October online issue of Nature Climate Change.